Kalshi BTC 15-minute contracts settled Yes 50% of the time across 9,208 distinct settled windows. Sorted by the price Sardine published for the contract, the rate runs from 7.8% in the 0–10¢ bucket to 93% in the 90–100¢ bucket. The full table is below.
Settled windows only, 95% Wilson intervals in the CSV. A cell is shown only where at least 60 distinct settled windows support it; thinner cells are left blank rather than filled with noise. The n values do not add up down the table, and are not meant to. Each window is observed five times as it runs down, and its price can sit in a different bucket at each observation, so one window is counted in every bucket it passed through — about 3.3 of them on average. The "All" row and column count each window once.
| Price published | 2 min left | 5 min left | 8 min left | 12 min left | 15 min left | All |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0–10¢ | 6.6% n=2,072 | 7.4% n=2,081 | 8.2% n=588 | — | — | 7.8% n=3,487 |
| 10–20¢ | — | — | 12% n=821 | 17% n=437 | — | 14% n=1,165 |
| 20–30¢ | 22% n=651 | 22% n=1,191 | 21% n=1,453 | 27% n=1,383 | — | 24% n=3,528 |
| 30–40¢ | — | — | — | — | 52% n=84 | 52% n=84 |
| 40–50¢ | 44% n=650 | 42% n=1,266 | 40% n=1,949 | 40% n=3,205 | 47% n=5,694 | 46% n=7,390 |
| 50–60¢ | — | — | — | — | 54% n=3,398 | 54% n=3,398 |
| 60–70¢ | — | 64% n=1,221 | 64% n=1,823 | 62% n=2,685 | — | 62% n=4,198 |
| 70–80¢ | 69% n=656 | — | — | 78% n=1,091 | — | 74% n=1,694 |
| 80–90¢ | 82% n=569 | 83% n=1,124 | 83% n=1,283 | 85% n=287 | — | 82% n=2,626 |
| 90–100¢ | 96% n=1,923 | 94% n=1,778 | 93% n=1,176 | 96% n=69 | — | 93% n=3,242 |
| All | 50% n=9,206 | 50% n=9,207 | 50% n=9,208 | 50% n=9,208 | 50% n=9,207 |
50% n=9,208 |
Price published is the probability Sardine published for that contract, in cents. Time left is seconds remaining until the window closed, at the moment the observation was taken. n counts distinct settled windows, never strike-rows: one window contributes one observation however many strikes it carried. A window counts as Yes when the majority of its rows settled Yes.
A Kalshi BTC 15-minute contract opens on the quarter hour and settles 15 minutes later against CF Benchmarks' BTC Real-Time Index, using a 60-second average of that index over the final minute — not a single print. The strike is the index level at the window open.
Full row-level data: kalshi_btc_15min_base_rates.csv (this table, with confidence intervals) and sardine_history_btc_15m.csv (every observation behind it).
Cite as: Sardine (sardine.info), CC BY 4.0. Licence: CC BY 4.0.