They settled Yes 8.4% of the time across 2,285 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.
95% range 7–10% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets
| We said | 6¢ on average |
| It happened | 8.4% settled Yes |
| Windows | 2,285 |
This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.