Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price down 0.03–0.04% vs the strike with 12 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 34% of the time across 446 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 30–39% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said38% (history table)
It happened34% settled Yes
Windows446

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC 15-minute screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.03–0.04%, 2 min left → 15%down 0.03–0.04%, 5 min left → 24%down 0.03–0.04%, 8 min left → 32%down 0.00–0.01%, 12 min left → 49%down 0.01–0.03%, 12 min left → 43%down 0.04–0.05%, 12 min left → 33%