Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price down 0.05–0.07% vs the strike with 15 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 49% of the time across 107 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 39–58% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said43% (history table)
It happened49% settled Yes
Windows107

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC 15-minute screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.05–0.07%, 2 min left → 8.3%down 0.05–0.07%, 5 min left → 17%down 0.05–0.07%, 8 min left → 20%down 0.05–0.07%, 12 min left → 30%down 0.00–0.01%, 15 min left → 49%down 0.01–0.03%, 15 min left → 48%