Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price up 0.00–0.01% vs the strike with 15 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 52% of the time across 2,090 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 50–54% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said55% (history table)
It happened52% settled Yes
Windows2,090

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

up 0.00–0.01%, 2 min left → 69%up 0.00–0.01%, 5 min left → 60%up 0.00–0.01%, 8 min left → 59%up 0.00–0.01%, 12 min left → 56%down 0.00–0.01%, 15 min left → 48%down 0.01–0.03%, 15 min left → 46%