Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price down 0.01–0.03% vs the strike with 5 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 38% of the time across 314 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 33–44% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said36% (history table)
It happened38% settled Yes
Windows314

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC 15-minute screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.01–0.03%, 2 min left → 30%down 0.00–0.01%, 5 min left → 48%down 0.03–0.04%, 5 min left → 24%down 0.04–0.05%, 5 min left → 24%down 0.05–0.07%, 5 min left → 17%down 0.07–0.10%, 5 min left → 12%