Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price down 0.30–0.45% vs the strike with 8 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 7.4% of the time across 122 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 4–13% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said10% (history table)
It happened7.4% settled Yes
Windows122

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

down 0.30–0.45%, 2 min left → 0.4%down 0.30–0.45%, 5 min left → 3.4%down 0.00–0.01%, 8 min left → 47%down 0.01–0.03%, 8 min left → 40%down 0.03–0.04%, 8 min left → 33%down 0.04–0.05%, 8 min left → 28%