Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.15–0.20% vs the strike with 10 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 7.0% of the time across 603 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 5–9% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said8% (history table)
It happened7.0% settled Yes
Windows603

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.15–0.20%, 2 min left → 0.9%down 0.15–0.20%, 3 min left → 2.1%down 0.15–0.20%, 5 min left → 3.2%down 0.00–0.01%, 10 min left → 51%down 0.01–0.03%, 10 min left → 40%down 0.03–0.04%, 10 min left → 32%