Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.05–0.07% vs the strike with 3 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 9.1% of the time across 176 settled windows, as of 24 October 2026.

95% range 6–14% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said12% (history table)
It happened9.1% settled Yes
Windows176

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.05–0.07%, 2 min left → 10%down 0.00–0.01%, 3 min left → 47%down 0.01–0.03%, 3 min left → 28%down 0.03–0.04%, 3 min left → 25%down 0.04–0.05%, 3 min left → 20%down 0.07–0.10%, 3 min left → 4.4%