Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.07–0.10% vs the strike with 30 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 32% of the time across 306 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 27–37% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said32% (history table)
It happened32% settled Yes
Windows306

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

down 0.07–0.10%, 2 min left → 1.8%down 0.07–0.10%, 3 min left → 4.5%down 0.07–0.10%, 5 min left → 14%down 0.07–0.10%, 10 min left → 16%down 0.07–0.10%, 20 min left → 28%down 0.00–0.01%, 30 min left → 49%