Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.20–0.30% vs the strike with 30 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 12% of the time across 371 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 9–16% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said13% (history table)
It happened12% settled Yes
Windows371

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.20–0.30%, 5 min left → 2.4%down 0.20–0.30%, 10 min left → 5.3%down 0.20–0.30%, 20 min left → 9.6%down 0.05–0.07%, 30 min left → 40%down 0.07–0.10%, 30 min left → 38%down 0.10–0.15%, 30 min left → 23%