Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.55–0.70% vs the strike with 30 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 2.3% of the time across 484 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 1–4% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said3% (history table)
It happened2.3% settled Yes
Windows484

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.55–0.70%, 5 min left → 0.2%down 0.55–0.70%, 10 min left → 0.8%down 0.55–0.70%, 20 min left → 0.6%down 0.05–0.07%, 30 min left → 40%down 0.07–0.10%, 30 min left → 38%down 0.10–0.15%, 30 min left → 23%