Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price up 0.01–0.03% vs the strike with 30 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 44% of the time across 63 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 33–57% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said62% (history table)
It happened44% settled Yes
Windows63

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.05–0.07%, 30 min left → 40%down 0.07–0.10%, 30 min left → 38%down 0.10–0.15%, 30 min left → 23%down 0.15–0.20%, 30 min left → 22%down 0.20–0.30%, 30 min left → 12%down 0.30–0.45%, 30 min left → 7.4%