Kalshi BTC hourly: price up 0.04–0.05% vs the strike with 30 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 67% of the time across 165 settled windows, as of 04 November 2026.

95% range 59–73% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said65% (history table)
It happened67% settled Yes
Windows165

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

up 0.04–0.05%, 2 min left → 92%up 0.04–0.05%, 3 min left → 80%up 0.04–0.05%, 5 min left → 82%up 0.04–0.05%, 10 min left → 76%up 0.04–0.05%, 20 min left → 68%down 0.00–0.01%, 30 min left → 50%