Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.03–0.04% vs the strike with 45 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 54% of the time across 119 settled windows, as of 24 October 2026.

95% range 45–62% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said38% (history table)
It happened54% settled Yes
Windows119

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.03–0.04%, 2 min left → 23%down 0.03–0.04%, 3 min left → 25%down 0.03–0.04%, 5 min left → 32%down 0.03–0.04%, 10 min left → 31%down 0.03–0.04%, 20 min left → 41%down 0.03–0.04%, 30 min left → 40%