Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.30–0.45% vs the strike with 45 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 8.1% of the time across 1,500 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 7–10% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said9% (history table)
It happened8.1% settled Yes
Windows1,500

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

down 0.30–0.45%, 2 min left → 0.0%down 0.30–0.45%, 3 min left → 0.0%down 0.30–0.45%, 5 min left → 0.2%down 0.30–0.45%, 10 min left → 1.3%down 0.30–0.45%, 20 min left → 2.9%down 0.30–0.45%, 30 min left → 6.1%