Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price up 0.03–0.04% vs the strike with 45 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 48% of the time across 61 settled windows, as of 20 September 2026.

95% range 36–60% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said61% (history table)
It happened48% settled Yes
Windows61

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

up 0.03–0.04%, 20 min left → 68%down 0.01–0.03%, 45 min left → 51%down 0.04–0.05%, 45 min left → 35%down 0.05–0.07%, 45 min left → 35%down 0.07–0.10%, 45 min left → 38%down 0.10–0.15%, 45 min left → 28%