Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.10–0.15% vs the strike with 5 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 5.0% of the time across 638 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 4–7% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said7% (history table)
It happened5.0% settled Yes
Windows638

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

down 0.10–0.15%, 2 min left → 1.6%down 0.10–0.15%, 3 min left → 3.1%down 0.00–0.01%, 5 min left → 50%down 0.01–0.03%, 5 min left → 46%down 0.03–0.04%, 5 min left → 31%down 0.04–0.05%, 5 min left → 27%