Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down more than 0.70% vs the strike with 5 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 0.0% of the time across 501 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 0–1% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said0% (history table)
It happened0.0% settled Yes
Windows501

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.05–0.07%, 5 min left → 16%down 0.07–0.10%, 5 min left → 20%down 0.10–0.15%, 5 min left → 6.2%down 0.15–0.20%, 5 min left → 3.6%down 0.20–0.30%, 5 min left → 2.4%down 0.30–0.45%, 5 min left → 0.4%