Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.01–0.03% vs the strike with 60 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 47% of the time across 115 settled windows, as of 24 October 2026.

95% range 38–56% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said40% (history table)
It happened47% settled Yes
Windows115

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.01–0.03%, 2 min left → 25%down 0.01–0.03%, 3 min left → 28%down 0.01–0.03%, 5 min left → 47%down 0.01–0.03%, 10 min left → 39%down 0.01–0.03%, 20 min left → 50%down 0.01–0.03%, 30 min left → 50%