Kalshi BTC hourly: price down 0.45–0.55% vs the strike with 60 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 6.5% of the time across 1,210 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 5–8% · Kalshi BTC hourly markets

We said7% (history table)
It happened6.5% settled Yes
Windows1,210

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_hourly.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC hourly screen →

Nearby questions

down 0.45–0.55%, 2 min left → 0.0%down 0.45–0.55%, 3 min left → 0.0%down 0.45–0.55%, 5 min left → 0.2%down 0.45–0.55%, 10 min left → 0.3%down 0.45–0.55%, 20 min left → 1.2%down 0.45–0.55%, 30 min left → 2.2%