Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price down 0.20–0.30% vs the strike with 12 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 18% of the time across 143 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 13–25% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said20% (history table)
It happened18% settled Yes
Windows143

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

down 0.20–0.30%, 2 min left → 0.5%down 0.20–0.30%, 5 min left → 3.2%down 0.20–0.30%, 8 min left → 7.0%down 0.00–0.01%, 12 min left → 48%down 0.01–0.03%, 12 min left → 44%down 0.03–0.04%, 12 min left → 36%