Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price up 0.10–0.15% vs the strike with 12 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 78% of the time across 455 settled windows, as of 02 November 2026.

95% range 74–82% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said76% (history table)
It happened78% settled Yes
Windows455

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

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Nearby questions

up 0.10–0.15%, 2 min left → 98%up 0.10–0.15%, 5 min left → 95%up 0.10–0.15%, 8 min left → 90%down 0.00–0.01%, 12 min left → 48%down 0.01–0.03%, 12 min left → 44%down 0.03–0.04%, 12 min left → 36%