Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price up 0.20–0.30% vs the strike with 12 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 92% of the time across 73 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 83–96% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said84% (history table)
It happened92% settled Yes
Windows73

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC 15-minute screen →

Nearby questions

up 0.20–0.30%, 2 min left → 100%up 0.20–0.30%, 5 min left → 97%up 0.20–0.30%, 8 min left → 91%down 0.00–0.01%, 12 min left → 49%down 0.01–0.03%, 12 min left → 43%down 0.03–0.04%, 12 min left → 34%