Sardine · counted, not predicted

Kalshi BTC 15-minute: price up 0.04–0.05% vs the strike with 5 minutes left — how often does it settle Yes?

It settled Yes 76% of the time across 238 settled windows, as of 18 September 2026.

95% range 71–81% · Kalshi BTC 15-minute markets

We said83% (history table)
It happened76% settled Yes
Windows238

This is a count, not a forecast. Every number Sardine publishes is logged and scored against the settled Kalshi result, in public: the running scorecard is at the record, and every row behind this page is in the raw CSV (sardine_history_btc_15m.csv, CC BY 4.0). Sample sizes count distinct settled windows, never strike-rows. Rebuilt daily from the same files.

See the live BTC 15-minute screen →

Nearby questions

up 0.04–0.05%, 2 min left → 90%down 0.00–0.01%, 5 min left → 48%down 0.01–0.03%, 5 min left → 38%down 0.03–0.04%, 5 min left → 24%down 0.04–0.05%, 5 min left → 24%down 0.05–0.07%, 5 min left → 17%